Market

Followers are priced. Views are bought.

The market's pricing error, quantified across 792 deals.

Eliot Intelligence · 5 min read

ELIOT. roster creator Maya, one of the small-audience creators brands book for views rather than follower counts

Creator rates track follower count at r=0.67. The value a brand receives — viewership — tracks price at only r=0.50. That gap is a buying opportunity.

Creators set rates on the metric printed on their profile. Brands receive a different metric entirely. Across 792 deals with full performance data, price correlates with follower count at r = 0.67 — but with actual average viewership at only r = 0.50. Inside a single tier, viewership barely moves price at all (0.18 to 0.44).

views^0.37

How price scales with viewership

Read that exponent plainly: a creator with 10x the viewership costs roughly 2.3x more. High-viewership creators in every tier are systematically underpriced, and that mispricing is the pool we buy from.

What it costs us per 1,000 views

The practical consequence is that viewership per dollar varies enormously between two creators of identical size. Selecting on expected views rather than follower count is the single highest-leverage decision in campaign planning, and it is available to any buyer willing to do the analysis.

How we operationalize it

  • Every candidate is screened on expected views per dollar before any outreach happens.
  • Negotiation is anchored to that number, not to the creator's rate card.
  • Trailing average viewership is the planning input; realized campaign CPMs typically come in lower.

We negotiate every creator deal against benchmark data on 926 signed contracts.

FAQ

Does follower count predict influencer views?
Only loosely. Across 792 deals with performance data, price correlated with follower count at r=0.67 but with actual viewership at only r=0.50. Inside a single tier, viewership barely moves price at all.
How should brands price influencer deals?
On expected views per dollar rather than on follower tier. That single change in selection criteria is the highest-leverage decision in campaign planning.